Labor’s Incrementalism: The Centre Cannot Hold

What the research is telling us about public sentiment towards the Government's approach

At Redbridge, alongside our quantitative work, we also do a lot of qualitative research. Most nights, we’re speaking to Australians from across the country, listening to their stories. As we learn about what’s important to them, I continue to marvel at their insights, the depth of their thinking, and their generosity with the information they share.

Even those who have fallen down the conspiracy theory ‘rabbit hole’ confound expectations. They might have bought into various culture war tropes peddled by those desperate to distract from their own failures and abuses, but that does not mean that these people are incapable of compassion or reason. 

These folks have taught me how expressions of vulnerability can seem dangerous to them after a lifetime of being brutalised by systems hostile to their interests. And they’ve shown me how quickly they can shift away from grievance against the marginalised, reorienting towards advocacy for progressive policies that will strengthen and protect all Australians… when they feel sufficiently safe to entertain such thinking.

Then there are the young people - those under age 35. I love speaking with them because they are clever, wry, and compassionate. But they also break my heart on a regular basis. I’ve written about why that is previously and spoke with Denise Shrivell about it on her podcast. That generation (and those younger than them) face dual economic and environmental threats to their long-term wellbeing.

In one group recently, a young woman observed that her young mates at work reckon they’re attending more funerals than their parents. This is because desperate young people who’ve lost hope are taking their own lives in numbers. They specifically identify the housing crisis as a key contributor.

The Redbridge Substack has a number of pieces now that detail how, across cohorts, there are consistent calls for bold, systemic reform. And there is widespread, profound dislike for what they describe as “band aid solutions” - the piecemeal tinkering around the policy edges that serves the short-term demands of the electoral cycle rather than Australians’ long-term interests.

These themes are strong, consistent, and unequivocal and it makes me wonder at Labor’s fidelity to incrementalism and (culture wars aside) the ostensible policy-free zone that is the Liberal-National Coalition.

We often hear members of the political class argue that all political contests in Australia must be won from the centre. But this received wisdom fails to interrogate the nature of our preferential system which conceals all manner of complexity inside primary votes, participation, and preference flows. 

Indeed, this failure is what allows certain people to believe that Labor’s victory at Fed 22 was resounding - as if their primary vote wasn’t in the 30s, the Teals hadn’t happened, and the Greens hadn’t swept inner Brisbane (while coming very close in other contests).

Sean Kelly’s compelling piece for The Monthly, about Labor’s long-term plan for Government, laid bare the Government’s thinking: big, urgent reforms must wait because their longevity takes primacy.

One can be sympathetic to the argument that keeping the Coalition away from the levers of power is a worthy goal after nine years in which norms were trashed and key aspects of our liberal democracy were eroded. But as a lone goal, for the people we speak to most nights, this is wholly insufficient.

At Redbridge, and I suspect elsewhere, we are seeing a decided shift in public sentiment. Patience is wearing thin as people state that they feel “politically homeless” and “abandoned” by major parties that seem to prioritise protecting big corporate interests that are rendering life for most people increasingly difficult. 

They see the corporate predation - largely unimpeded by the political class - eroding their standard of living while destroying the environment. They fear for their children’s future on a number of fronts. And they see the politicians who could intervene instead - at best - do nothing about price gouging and - at worst - actively assist by hindering competition.

The Qantas saga speaks to so many people because flights are not just about holidays and business trips. In a country of migrants, it can mean the difference between seeing loved ones or not.

Then there is AUKUS and Stage 3. These, too, continue to highlight for people a disconnect between them and the political class that is so severe, it has become a rupture. I’ve lost count of the number of times conservative, older men have brought up “the subs” as emblematic of a Government whose priorities are profoundly misplaced.

Across cohorts, people are not begging for the “sensible centre” to hold. They are longing for relief that is structural - from a system they perceive as rapacious, that they believe is actively harming them and the people they love.

So many people, including those who are conservative and older, are seeing increased homelessness and are horrified: “In a rich country like Australia, this shouldn’t be happening.”

There is consensus that we are beset by crises that seems to many almost apocalyptic. And when the apocalypse is precipitated by human greed and venality, perhaps retreating to religious dualism, rather than looking further, is part of the problem.

Perhaps some in Labor are bound up in a form of this dualism, imagining the Coalition as their only rightful opponents - that the true contest belongs to the majors alone.

In this dualistic worldview, the Greens can only be seen as wreckers - not as legitimate actors advocating for a number of policies that have broad support across the electorate.

The flaw in this thinking, however, is aged 18-35. It is sometimes even older and Teal coloured, or perhaps orange or pink. Sometimes it is a shocking, worrying yellow. In 2025 it may include another palette of colours as well.

How this will all play out, we cannot know. The only thing of which I am certain is that, as crisis compounds crisis, the centre cannot hold.