A fragmented electorate - May 2026 RedBridge | Accent Research MRP

Labor holds. The Coalition collapses. One Nation takes its place.

Our latest MRP models all 150 House of Representatives seats from a sample of 6,015 voters. If an election were held now, (Median result) Labor wins a majority on 31% of the primary vote and 76 seats. One Nation becomes the Official Opposition on 28% and 53 seats. The Coalition collapses to 21% and 12 seats, with zero seats in Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia or Tasmania.

62 seats change hands. The Coalition loses 37 directly to One Nation. The Nationals and LNP are wiped out entirely.

The report includes:

• National primary vote and seat projections with full credible intervals

• Seat-by-seat predictions across all 150 divisions

• A complete list of seats changing hands and who they move to

• Methodology

Download the full report here.